Any credible views and strategic recommendations on the Post General Election scenarios need to start with a good analysis of data of the GE itself, hence, it is important that we establish a good baseline data before we can move forward. A web definition of baseline data is ‘Initial collection of data which serves as a basis for comparison with the subsequently acquired data’.
In this respect, we have been fed with all kind of conflicting data and estimates coming out from so many sources both from the web and from the traditional media. Most of these data came unsolicited and volunteered mostly by the politicians, political analysts and amateur blog writers.
Yet the importance of these data cannot be overemphasized, in the sense that any strategy that need to be formulated after the event should be based on accurate data of the past, including immediate past events. Accurate and reliable data will provide proper insights of the issues and help in the formulation of good policies and program for the future. Once the policies and programs are in place, data are then collected to facilitate studies on the effectiveness of those initiatives once these policies and programs are implemented.
Now, suddenly we are confronted with mega issues of the nation, such as, is UMNO relevant for the future? Is the existing BN formula of affiliation of race based parties still relevant? Should BN be transformed into a single party. Can PAS grow as a dominant force? Is PKR relevant in future or Can DAP develop into a dominant political party and finally, can a two political party system ever take root in Malaysia.
Given the wide divergence of analysis, or so called analysis in the media the current atmosphere is so confusing that it may take longer for the intellectual community to figure out where we actually are in the measure of political maturity. For instance, politically biased blog from Pakatan Rakyat often come out with statistics showing only 54% Malay support for BN in PRU 13. How they come out with this statistics is far from clear. My own statistical model, coming from this professional blog, indicates malay support for BN in Semenanjung is 63%. There is a world of difference between these two figures, ie. while the lower figure questions the relevance of UMNO in future, my own figure confirms that UMNO is still very relevant.
The atmosphere of political hatred, lies, gossips and defamations has been so pervasive that it took the centre stage of political campaigns for at least two years before the actual general election and have contributed tho this misperception. No doubt this atmosphere have been initiated and perpetuated by politicians on both sides of the political divides and happily embraced by the media, both the old and the new. As a result important issues which should promote potitical maturity and should shape our nation took a back seat. People were distracted by so called pornographic videos of certain leaders, the gossips of Najib’s alleged involvement in Attantuya murder case, or alleged croynism and corruptions of certain leaders which are largely unsubstantiated.
There are of course discussions on why we are divided. Why the Malays becoming more Malay, the Chinese becoming more Chinese and the Indians more Indian. Malay extremists will point a fingure on the Chinese for perpetuating Chinese schools and the Chinese blame the Malays for overextending and breaching the boundary of Malay Rights provided under the constitutions. In this case no single race is absolutely right or the other absolutely wrong. A formula was reached called ‘social contract’ over fifty years ago. I t was a compromise, but unfortunately this surely has contributed to the dilemma we Malaysians are facing today. This has contributed to the racial polarization we see today in this country.
On the other hand is it really bad to be racially polarised as we are today as long as we do not not fight one another and develop together? Many European countries are also facing the same scenario. In Belgium the two ethnic groups, the Dutch speaking and the French speaking groups have lived together for centuries. The same scenario also exist in Switzerland. On the other hands, many Arab countries are unstable, political groups killing each other though belonging to the same race, religion and speaking the same language.
Many point to the fact that the Chinese are well assimilated in Indonesia, Thailand and The Philippines. In these countries the situations are different. There the Chinese are small minorities, but in Malaysia they form 25% of the population, and our forefathers decided we needed to show more accomodation. Were our forefathers erroneous in this aspect? or is it not better to be racially different so as to develop healthy competition for the benefit of the country. Is it not true to say that Malays in Malaysia have developed more than Malays elsewhere, or for that matter, more than Muslims elsewhere. Has it not been partly due to competitive atmosphere that Malaysia has been providing all along?
This is the end of Part 1 of ‘Post PRU 13 Scenarios’. The Second Part will be published soon to cover issues relating to role of dominant race in a nation.
DAH IKHWAN
Months or may be almost a year before GE13, I have came to the conclusion that this time around (GE13), the percentage of Chinese deserting BN would be higher than GE12. I had a “pluck from the air” estimate of 10% at the maximum as the percentage of Chinese who would be voting BN in GE 13. I admit that I have no systematic database collection nor statistical basis or analysis to come out with that figure. It was purely based on my many interactions in the office with Chinese friends, listening to “sembang2 kedai kopi”, listening to the surau folks and ustaz’s ceramah that made me conclude that this time around, the chinese are “united” and resolved to show BN the door. I have yet to meet a Chinese that are BN supporter. Seriosly, every Chinese I know and talk to made it known that they are voting PR!
I do not mean to question your professionalism in doing the analysis for GE 13, bu I found it disturbing that you had used GE12’s data of 25% Chinese votes as the basis.
Anyway, GE13 is water under the bridge. Now, moving forward, is the reconciliation period. But is it not going to be easy. We talk about 1Malaysia yet we have 3 schools. We need a bold and brave way forward by having one national stream school. Everyone is under the same roof since childhood. They grow up together, knowing each other’s customs and beliefs. Only then you will truly achieve one nation.
On UMNO’s side, since the Malays are throwing their support in greater numbers to BN, I suggest UMNO to explore the possibility to further expand Islamic Laws for the muslims. I could not see why malays, even in PAS or PKR would object to this. If UMNO is bold enough to do this, I bet you for GE14, even more Malays will be supporting them. PAS will have no ammunitions to shoot UMNO.
As for the Chinese votes, I think it is save to just say ” forget about the Chinese votes”. You did not get it in GE13, there is no reason to beleive they will give you the votes in GE14. I hope I am wrong, but from the sentiments amongst the chinese, they have made up their mind who they will vote in GE14.
Treat the indians, the malays and Sabahans and sarawakian well and BN need not worry. GE14 is still theirs.
Forget the Chinese. They are wealthy enough and intelligent enough to be independent. They have proven so. So stop wating your time and money on the Chinese. Leave them alone, let them find the path they truly wanted.
Kak Mar,
Thank you very much for your comments. Congratulations that you have been correct in your forecast of Chinese votes at around 10% in PRU 13. I have admitted that my figure of 25% Chinese support was rather optimistic, but I didn’t really use PRU 12 figure for this purpose. Instead it was an estimate derived from Sarawak State Election in 2011. My estimate for Chinese support in PRU 12 was 39.5%, derived from multiple regression analysis.
I respect your views regarding all school students studying under one roof, but I feel this will not happen as our government will not have the will to do it. Moreover, this may alienate the Chinese permanently. This will not be good for UMNO as its partnership with MCA has been tested over 50 years. I feel UMNO should not desert its long time ally MCA and MIC permanently just because of one election. What we see today may be the worse case scenario, as we know that the Chinese are united under DAP in PRU 13 because they were convinced that they could lead the next government under Pakatan Rakyat. Now that they have seen this is not possible, there is good likelihood that some may come back to BN in the next GE. As a matter of fact Chinese support for BN in Sarawak increased slightly from 24.4% in 2011 to 29.5% in PRU 2013. I have seen Chinese sentiment in Sarawak precedes their compatriot in Semenanjung.
As for UMNO or PAS, UMNO is propagating Islam Washatiah and Malay voters are well aware of this in this election. Even PAS is also moving towards the centre. For UMNO to be more extreme in religious issues, this has never been its stand and to ask it to change, is too much to ask for, since they have received overwhelming Malay support on the basis of Islam Washatiah. Don’t forget Islamic extremism will dilute the Malay race struggle, which is the basic foundation of UMNO.