Whether we like it or not, the current unrest in UMNO will have a far reaching impact on the political climate of Malaysia in the immediate future. It looks more and more like a proxy war between Tun Mahathir and Anwar in their efforts to fortify their positions within Pakatan Harapan. This follows signs that Anwar is getting increasingly uneasy with Mahathir’s recent moves on UMNO members of Parliament which succeeded to induce mass resignation from Sabah UMNO, immediately followed by six resignation of Malayan UMNO MP’s. It is quite obvious that all of these started when Mahathir found himself only backed by 12 MP’s from his own Party which makes him a sitting duck Prime Minister in a 222 seat Malaysian Parliament.
From whatever angle one looks at it, Mahathir is indeed a master strategist, a class by himself in the country’s political arena and for his opponents, a politician dangerous to underrate or ignore. A few months ago it was difficult to imagine how he could move so effectively and fast on UMNO, a party synonymous with Malay nationalism. Yet when he made his moves, the Malays are awe struck by this exodus as well as the prospect of more resignations.
There were no voices of disapprovals as if the Malays have just started to understand him. I have interviewed a few Peninsular Malaysian friends who have retired from government service on what they thought of the current events. Alls of them love UMNO and what it stood for in the last six decades. But, to them the current exodus of MP’s is something necessary to purify the party now overshadowed by Najib’s image, which means Zahid and those closely connected with Najib must go. To most of them if Zahid remains in his position, soon UMNO will meet its demise, though few think that the party will retain its hardcore older members who still remember how difficult life was if there were no UMNO. Older people of over 50 years of age make up 40% of the total voting population
Analysis by Jocelyn Tan of the Star indicated the remaining 38 UMNO MP’s will likely stick with the party, but nevertheless most will decide to prop up Mahathir, should there be any vote of no confidence against him. They will act as such not so much out of love for Mahathir but more to prevent Anwar becoming PM.
Malays, however tend to forget the fact that it was Mahathir who promised in UN that Malaysia would ratify ICERD. It was Mahathir who made a U turn when facing early signs of stiff resistance from anti ICERD movement and it was him who moved to clip the wings of the Malaysian royalties two decades ago. Still Malays give an edge to Mahathir since Anwar is seen uninterested in Malay agenda altogether.
To the Malays, this could be the most reasonable stand to take, since Mahathir is more trustworthy and more consistent than Anwar in his actions to protect Malay and Islamic rights.
But, Mahathir strategy to woo most of UMNO members to join PPBM would not likely succeed. UMNO is akin to a mass movement in the Malay community in the last 60 years, having a widespread network of more than 3,000,000 members and tens of thousands of divisions and branches. Ordinary members are the real strength of UMNO, the one party with a very strong ideal for the Malays in Peninsular Malaysia. What it needs are new leaders untainted with its past excesses who can bring it back to the party’s original ideals.
The general support for Mahathir in Peninsular politics may be understandable, but in Borneo states, the environment is murkier. Even his ally Warisan in Sabah is not happy with the mass resignation from Sabah UMNO since this would mean PPBM could end up becoming the largest in the state. If not handled carefully this could become the clearest case of intrigue and betrayal, which is the hallmark of Mahathirism. The Sabahans may also be at fault here, who out of a history of deep distrust for each other, conveniently set aside their MA63 struggle if need be, in favour of the embrace from a big brother from Peninsular Malaysia.
The situation in Sarawak is quite similar, but here Mahathir still fails to make an impact. Given Mahathir’s penchant for intrigue and betrayal, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) needs to be more wary since its declaration to cooperate with the Federal government is only a lose relationship compared with the formal relationship Mahathir has with PKR, DAP and WARISAN. If he is willing to destroy any of these PH parties, what is GPS to him? The only credible reason for him to hold fire is if he is convinced that by-passing GPS would only bring benefits to PKR and not PPBM. Even then, the difference between the two parties are becoming less clear since the Sarawak PKR appears to be more aligned to Mahathir than Anwar.
Probably, GPS could breathe a sigh of relief over the lack lustre reception from Sarawakians at the launching of PPBM at Bintulu early this month. This is not unexpected since PPBM, just as in Semenanjung, is eyeing Malay/Muslim seats. But in Sarawak the Malay/Muslims are united and gave over 80% support (obtained by multiple regression analysis) in PRU 14 to Sarawak BN, now known as GPS, hence giving slim prospect for Mahathir’s party here. Even then, it is best for Sarawakians to be on alert to face his divide and rule tactics.
It is envisaged that the coming state election will witness the mother of all battles in Sarawak, in particular in the non-muslim Bumiputera areas. This is because the Chinese are already won by PH with 81% of Chinese votes in GE 14, while the Muslim Bumiputera areas are still strongly behind GPS. As for the non-Muslim Bumiputera, this looks set to be the main battleground although voter support for GPS here is still fairly comfortable. In spite of the above, GPS should not ignore the importance of Chinese votes as like the Bumiputeras, the Chinese also looks up to a more autonomous Sarawak rather than Pakatan Harapan which is more and more dominated by Tun Mahathir.
It should be noted the impact of PH campaigns in Sarawak saw different pattern than in Semenanjung Malaysia. While in Semenanjung BN lost approx 17% Malay votes, in Sarawak BN only lost 4-8% of Malay/Bumiputera votes compared with PRU 13. This could be because Tun Mahathir did not really campaign in Sarawak and Sarawak voters are less sensitive to national issues. Things will be much more challenging in the coming state election as all the PH heavyweights will campaign backed by Federal Governmnet facilities and institutions. END
DAH IKHWAN
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