How did Tun Mahathir Get This Solid Support.. So Far.

The press and the public had expected a showdown at the Pakatan Harapan Presidential Council’s Thursday night meeting two day ago. Instead, it was a let down, though there were some attempts to prolong the heated discussions which lasted for one and a half hours. There was no decision on the transition date to hand over premiership to Anwar. Tun Mahathir was in fact free to decide when he likes to retire.

Although ordinary people and the press had expected a big war, if one examines deeper, the decision finally taken was actually the most likely that night. There was no other choice, unless Anwar was prepared for an all out assault and to take full risk.

But Anwar has never been a full risk taker; all his actions were based on safe calculation. Since joining politics, his goal has been to become Prime Minister. Tun Mahathir knew this and helped to carve out a ‘safe route’ for him. But now, it is a big question mark as to whether he will ever become one.

At the time when he was a firebrand and influential youth leader, he was inclined to join PAS to take over as the party leader. But, he decided to join UMNO instead, since UMNO was in the government, giving him a clear route to Premiership. Tun Mahathir did not disappoint him. He helped him to be Deputy President and Deputy Prime Minister. In fact, nobody else has given him so much opportunity as Mahathir.

But crazy ambition and restlessness got the better of him. He tried to hit (politically) at Tun Mahathir when the latter was at his most vulnerable time. Any other person than Mahathir could have opted for a safe passage out. He should have read Tun Mahathir’s fearless and full risk taking character very well. The old Man has never been scared of anything. If it were Tunku Abdul Rahman, Tun Hussein Onn or Tun Ahmad Badawi at the helm at that time, the outcome could have been different and Anwar may be celebrating his 22nd year as Prime Minister this year, the longest serving, instead of the longest Prime Minister in waiting.

Again it was based on a calculated move which turned out to be a miscalculation. He realised this too late. When Tun Mahathir sacked him from UMNO, it was too late to plead for sympathy, and moreover nobody ever thought Tun Mahathir would ever sack a senior colleague from the party.

Under the existing political scenario, he has tried four times, ie in the PRU 1999, PRU 2004, PRU 2008 AND 2013 but failed to win majority seats in Parliament. He had formed Parti Keadilan which later transformed into Parti Keadilan Rakyat in the above General Elections. Half of the Malays were with him in PRU 1999, but why didn’t he form a Malay Party at that time to sustain Malay support? Instead he formed a Multiracial party, and this was a gross miscalculation.

After four General Elections, and perhaps realising that he could not succeed with dwindling Malay support, he was attracted to Tun Mahathir’s offer to form Pakatan Harapan.

Although initially apprehensive to the idea, Anwar agreed to join up with Tun Mahathir to topple Barisan Nasional. Here again Anwar was vulnerable. He agreed to join up because of his overflowing ambition to become Prime Minister. It was a calculated move. Hence, the Pakatan Harapan Agreement for the mid term power transfer. He could not resist the prospect of a clear pathway to the country’s premiership, again a calculated move without much apparent risk.

Tun Mahathir seems to have read very well of Anwar’s fear to take extreme risk. He made full use of this opportunity to fortify his position right from the start. He judged correctly that Anwar would not dare to stop it. Not only that he stole UMNO MPs to join his party, extended olive branch to PAS, UMNO and GPS, he further ensured that his recent decisions sensitive to the Bumiputera and muslim communities were reversed, in spite of strong objections from DAP and PKR. This sealed Anwar’s fate among the Malay/Muslim communities.

With the above moves in place, it is little wonder that Anwar had no choice but to capitulate in the current scenario. As for his future prospect, assuming Tun Mahathir really has the majority support in Parliament, one can imagine it would be very difficult for Anwar to regain his footing. It would then be humiliating for him. END

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DAH IKHWAN