PRU 15: Election Forecast by Parliamentary Seats and Racial Sentiment

[translated from Bahasa Malaysia Version dated 15 November 2022]

Introduction

Racial polarisation  impacts Malaysian Politics and this will once again determine voting pattern in the coming  15th General Election; in fact it will even exceed previous election scenario. So, it will not be too much to expect that virtually  all  of Chinese votes will go to Pakatan Harapan,  and 94% Malay votes will go to Malay based parties namely, Perikatan Nasional and Barisan Nasional in Peninsular Malaysia. As for the Indian votes it is expected that these will largely go to PH with the balance  divided between BN and PN.

As for the young Peninsular voters, the Chinese (age 18-39) are likely to be fully behind PH.  On the other hand, majority of young Malays will likely vote for PN, while most of those aged above 39 years would likely  vote for BN.

I come to the above conclusion based on in depth analysis of results from the PRN Melaka(2021) and PRN Johor (2022).

There are many analysts, however,  who feel that sentiment of the young voters is still largely a mystery, in other words they are  fence sitters and regarded as idealists – such was the favourite assumption as these young voters ( aged 18-39)  now form the majority in the electoral register, approximately 51%. I like to think otherwise and view it as a wrong assumption, since immediate past by-elections and state elections results indicated they are actually decisive block of voters.  Empirical analysis of recent elections data in Malacca and Johor  indicated almost 100%  Chinese voters actually voted for PH and 94% of their Malay counterpart actually voted for BN and PN. These data are clear indication  that there are not many fence sitters. Most voters have actually made their decision long before the voting dates in the past and in the coming PRU 15. They act according to the interests of each racial group.

Basis of Forecast for Peninsular Malaysia

In my recent analysis, I discovered that Malay support for BN differ, being highest at  62% in Johore and lowest at 35% in Kedah. As for PN the highest Malay support is estimated  at 63% in Kelantan and lowest in Johor at 30%.

Chinese voter support is estimated almost 100% for PH in every state, except Johor at 82%.

This forecast is estimated from expected  voting data for each state, which are totaled up to make up the forecast figure for the entire Peninsular Malaysia.

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Basis of Forecast for Sarawak

The situation in Sarawak is different  in the make up of voters’ race and the competing political parties as compared to Semenanjung. Sarawak’s voters are Dayaks, Malay/Melanau and Chinese, while the parties are Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional and Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB).

Forecast is made based on expected support of each racial group as reflected in the PRN Sarawak in 2021, with GPS receiving 88,7% Malay/Melanau votes, 60% Dayak  and  37% Chinese votes.

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Basis of Forecast for Sabah

In Sabah there are 26 Parliamentary seats, of which 7 are contested by GRS-BERSATU, 12 by GRS-UMNO, 2 GRS-PBS and 2 by GRS-STAR’. These party groupings are competing against WARISAN  and Pakatan Harapan.

In the Sabah State Election held in 2021, there were altogether 73 DUN Seats, 14 won by UMNO, 11 by BERSATU, 32 by WARISAN with the balance held by GRS. The current  scenario is still unclear with many hotly contested seats involving UMNO, BERATU, WARISAN and some local parties, each having  specific appeals to the electorate. Strength of each political party is not so obvious in many constituencies, so it may be correct to assume that victory would largely depend on effectiveness of last minute campaigning by the contesting parties. At this stage, I assume that each party’s strength would be  similar to that as  reflected in the 2020 State Election.

Forecast for the three regions  and for the the whole country are given below:

Please see the position of Perikatan Nasional in the above table. At the minimum (Scenario 1) it falls far behind BN, but at the maximum (Scenario 2) it almost equals that of BN.

Immediately after the Malacca State Election, I have published an article titled ‘PRN Melaka 2021: Keputusan Pengundi Merestui Parti Melayu Alternatif’ bertarikh 23.11.21. This was the first study ever to discover  emergence of the new trend in Malay politics.

Now many national political analysts accept this trend and believe that Perikatan Nasional is really emerging as a serious contender to BN, thus enabling Tan Sri Muhyddin Yassin as  a possible  next Prime Minister following  this 15th General Election. If this rising trend continues right up to the voting date, his appointment as Prime Minister for the second time would probably happen. Why not, after all he is very qualified, smart, and daring enough to confront  big corruption. He has sacrificed a comfortable position as Deputy Prime Minister because of strong adherence to principles. Moreover the Perikatan Nasional government which he led has proven  to be very successful in dealing with COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020-2021, which  managed to save thousands of  lives and helped most people with financial and cash assistance  when the country was in dire situation.

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DAH IKHWAN