[this is English translation of the original Article: PRU 15: Analisis Keputusan Kerusi Parlimen Dan Sentimen Kaum bertarikh 31.12.22]
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I have just managed to complete this analysis over a month after the 15th General Election, as being a part time blogger, I needed time to attend to other more pressing issues. However, this article is now completed, after making a comprehensive data analysis, as I usually did after every Malaysian General Election since the last 14 years.
The forecast that I published in this Blog on 15 November 2022, ie. four days prior to the polling day, proved to be very accurate for seats won by Pakatan Harapan and Gabungan Parti Sarawak(GPS), based on Scenario 2 which was indicated as the likely outcome. As for the Malay Parties, it is also highly accurate with a total of 104 seats won by BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN), only that the seat split between the two Malay parties differed somewhat.
Compared with known forecasts made by other forecasters nationawide, the forecast by this Blog proved to be most accurate and comprehensive. Please refer to the this forecast article for comparison.
What made the difference was my discovery that the Peninsular Malays were ready to accept Perikatan Nasional as another major Malay Party
Please see details in the tables below:
POLITICAL PARTY | FORECAST (SENARIO 2) | ACTUAL RESULTS |
PAKATAN HARAPAN | 78 | 81 |
PERIKATAN NASIONAL | 51 | 74 |
BARISAN NASIONAL | 53 | 30 |
GABUNGAN PARTI SARAWAK | 24 | 23 |
WARISAN | 9 | 3 |
OTHER | 7 | 11 |
TOTAL | 222 | 222 |
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Making an analysis of voter support by racial groups is a more challenging task and normally takes more time and needs more detailed data inputs. I have just completed this task and the results are shown below:
POLITICAL PARTY | %UNDI MELAYU | % UNDI KAUM CINA | %UNDI KAUM INDIA |
PAKATAN HARAPAN | 7% | 93% | 85% |
PERIKATAN NASIONAL | 56% | 5% | 8% |
BARISAN NASIONAL | 37% | 3% | 6% |
PRU 15: PECAHAN UNDI MENGIKUT KAUM DI SEMENANJUNG MALAYSIA
UMNO’S overconfidence in this General Election has proved to be its own undoing. As a matter of fact UMNO under Zahid Hamidi was not only involved in big corruption, but pulled by the nose by a party President who is not smart enough to read voters’ sentiments, or forced to make reckless decisions in view of his pending court cases.
So, most Malays have decided to abandon UMNO, in fact worse than expected. Only 37% Malay voters in the country voted for UMNO compared with 46% in the previous General Election. This down trend is now very obvious and it is unlikely that they ever return to UMNO in future , since the younger generation who make up the bulk of future voters have no nostalgia over the party. Let alone with the current condition of UMNO as a junior partner in the Pakatan Harapan government, something below the dignity of the Malays.
I figured out that UMNO’S destruction had actually started since the 14th General Election. If ever there is hope to rise again, this could only happen if Perikatan Nasional itself were to pass through a dark period in time to come. But this is an unlikely occurance to a party in the opposition. Corruption and dirty culture normally happen in a government rather than the opposition party.
Extreme racial polarisation remains in GE 15, as reflected by the almost complete support of Chinese votes for PH. Only now it is answered by similar level of support (93%) by Malay voters for the major Malay parties, namely PN and BN.As a result, PH only managed to obtain a miniscule percentage of Malay votes (7%).
Since UMNO has betrayed the wishes of the voters of no DAP and no ANWAR, the formation of the Malaysian Government following the GE 15, has ignored the wishes of the 93% Peninsular Malay electorate.END.
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DAH IKHWAN