PRU 14: General Election Forecast For DUN Selangor

(Updated on 1 May, 2018 to incorporate Redelineation of Boundaries)

After ten years in the opposition, BN looks confident to recapture Selangor. This time, BN is going into the election without the baggages that brought it down in the previous  elections. I mean there is no HINDRAF  issue, there is no Khir Toyo issue and moreover there is no sensitive issues like demolition of the Hindu temples that turned the Indians against the BN government then.

[for article on Results and Analysis of PRU 14, please click here]

After two terms in the seat of the government, Pakatan Rakyat(PR) now  reconstituted as Pakatan Harapan (PH), has accumulated its own baggage too, most notably being the Ijok land  and now, the water supply issue. But overall, Azmin Ali and Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim  before him, have proved to be good Chief Ministers, definitely much better and more popular  than Khir Toyo,  the much despised last  BN Menteri Besar for Selangor.

Can BN recapture Selangor when  its  Pakatan Harapan Menteri Besar and his YBs are well entrenched in their positions, especially when  national issues like the 1MDB, GST and the rising cost of living are looming over the state. No doubt it was The Chinese and the Indian voters that tipped the balance against BN in the last two elections, but Malay support for BN, though still fairly high at 59%(based on GE 2013 results),  is also  lower  compared with other west coast states of Peninsular Malaysia.

But now  new factors will change the effects quite substantially and possibly may change the election outcome too. Firstly, PAS the Islamic Party is now outside the coalition  and, secondly this week Parliament has just approved redelineation of electoral boundaries which most likely favours BN. In the redelineation exercise, the constituencies are more pure  when mixed  seats are now less diverse ethnically. It will be more difficult for the  opposition minded Chinese voters to influence the election outcome in such seats. The Chinese hate this boundary delineation, but majority of the Malays surely like it at the time when Malay dominance  over the country’s power structure is being threatened. After all in Malaysia race comes first.

In the 2013  General Election, the Chinese were hyper-motivated by DAP by its UBAH slogan. It was indeed possible at that time to overthrow the Malay led BN government if the Chinese led Pakatan Rakyat managed to win enough mixed seats in the election. But it was not to be. The Malay and Bumiputera  voters rallied behind UMNO and other BN parties and the UBAH attempt failed, although  PR did win majority votes in a backdrop of  over-whelmingly Chinese support.

DAP preparation was indeed beyond  excellent, strategic and executed systematically over a period  of time. Firstly, they succeeded in  getting  over 90% Chinese voters turnout, a feat never  achieved anywhere else in the world. Even Malaysian Chinese who have long resided overseas came in droves to vote. Secondly,  DAP worked 24 hours daily to help with registration of Chinese voters, as a result there were 30% Chinese voters on the electoral register although they only make up 24% of Malaysian population.

Forecast by Computer Simulation

Having considered the above, I have derived by  computer simulation a  general election forecast for Selangor. In this model, every DUN seat, 56 in all, is calculated by a set of formula made up of three independent variables, namely Malay, Chinese and Indian votes, each with an estimated coefficient derived from DUN results from PRU 13  general election, but modified to suit the likely PRU 14 three cornered fights in all racially mixed seats contested by BN, PAS and Pakatan Harapan. It also takes into account probable support that  new parties like PPBM and PAN would get from Malay voters based on the Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar By-election results and  a few reliable opinion surveys available to date. The forecast showing the number of DUN seats likely to be won are as follows:

Political Party              DUN seats (BN minimum)     DUN seats (BN maximum)

Barisan Nasional                           18                                                         21

Opposition parties                        38                                                         35

Total                                                 56                                                        56

It appears that Pakatan Harapan may likely retain majority seats and form the new government in Selangor after the PRU 14. However, as I have not been able to incorporate the new boundaries, this forecast is only based on the electoral boundaries existing prior to the recent redelineation exercise.  I will make necessary adjustments to the forecast once more details are  publicly available.

It is expected that BN will likely increase its  seats after this redelineation exercise, but to what extent , it  will remain to be seen. Let’s wait and until then, be patient.

Update on 1 May 2018 to incorporate Redelineation of Electoral Boundary

After the nomination date on 28 April 2018, I obtained the necessary data on candidates and the new racial composition of each  DUN constituency. Adjustments were made to the forecast as promised above and it was found that the election scenario in Selangor has become more competitive with a possibility of BN wresting control of the state from Pakatan Harapan. The revised forecast is shown below:

Political Party          DUN seats (BN minimum)        DUN seats (BN maximum)  

Barisan Nasional                                     22                                                          29
Pakatan Harapan                                    34                                                          27
PAS                                                              0                                                            0

Total                                                           56                                                         56

Regards,

DAH IKHWAN

Related Articles:

1. PRU 14 (2018): Ramalan untk DUN Kedah.
2. PRU 14 (2018): Ramalan DUN Kelantan