In the aftermath of The recent Malacca State Election ( PRN Melaka 2021) and the Johor State Election (PRN Johor 2022), more research establishments are now confirming the original findings I have published earlier in this blog.
Ibrahim Suffian of Merdeka Centre recently stated that PN has emerged as alternative to BN in Malay votes, particularly among young voters.
Meanwhile Hamidin Abd Hamid of Ilham Centre said that “In urban areas, we noticed that the young voters were very much influenced by their peers and families in terms of voting pattern.
He said this would be a cause for concern for BN as around 50% of the voters in the next general election would be under 39 years
In our earlier article published immediately after the Malacca Election, it was discovered that only 53% of Malay votes went to BN, which was 4% below BN’s performance in PRU 2018. In contrast PN managed to draw away Malay votes both from PH and BN. Hence, PN managed to obtain 40% of all the Malacca Malay votes.
The results in Johor were slightly different with BN still holding its grip on 61% Malay voters there, compared with 39% for PN. Even with this result, BN votes were actually chipped off by 3% compared with PRU 14. results.
Reading the results from Johor and Malacca alone will be very misleading without comparing it with the rest of Semenanjung. Here is where it gets very interesting since Malay voter support for BN in the peninsular was only 46.29% in PRU 14. If the fall witnessed in Malacca and Johore also happens in other states, which is likely, then BN would only be able to get approx. 43% of the Malay votes. This will put BN in a vulnerable position, especially with the influx of new young voters on the electoral roll.
Analysis by age group indicates that BN is still strong among Malay voters above 40 years, but much weakened among Young Malays when it managed to retain only 50%. In contrast PN, being a new party, managed to attract 48% of the young Johor Malays.
PN’s attraction among young Malacca voters is even more stunning. Here, 64% of Malay young voters were with PN, though 73 % of those aged 40 and above remained with BN.
The above results obtained in umno strongholds should raise the spirit and hope of Perikatan Nasional while ring the alarm bell for BN in the run up to the 15th General Election. In states where PAS is strong, these would mean an even strength between BN and PN among Peninsular Malays. This would also mean, non Malay voters may make the difference.
Currently BN has an edge over PN in attracting non Malay voters. Things may change in the next few months depending on voters’ acceptance of any political realignment and the effectiveness of competing parties’ election machinery.
Pakatan Harapan in its present form is not likely to win this time as most of their Malay supporters are running away.
Thank you
DAH IKHWAN
