DAH IKHWAN Blog

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PRN Sarawak 2021 or the 12th Sarawak State Election (2021) results witnessed a very strong performance of the Gabungan Party Sarawak (GPS) as expected by most analysts.

The governing coalition won 76 seats, which is even higher than the 73 seats that I predicted under the maximum case scenario, Party Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) won 4 seats, while Pakatan Harapan was badly thrashed with DAP winning only two seats. Details are given in the table below:

I ran a multiple regression analysis over the election results of the constituencies selected throughout the state and discovered that 88.7% of the Malay/Melanau voted for GPS. Some 36.9% of the Chinese electorate also voted for GPS, compared with 18.8% in the 2018 General Election. Meanwhile 60.3% of the Dayak voters voted for GPS, while the balance mostly went to PSB, followed by Pakatan Harapan and Independent candidates. Popular votes obtained by the three parties are shown in the first table, while the breakdown of votes by race is in the table below:

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The debacle of the Pakatan Harapan in this election is worse than expected, against the background of the general sentiment ‘Sarawak First’ adopted by GPS. This election also rejected totally the pro-independence parties that mainly appeared just before the election.

The voters turnout was very low at 60.7% for the whole of Sarawak, the lowest being in the Chinese dominated constituencies where these were as low as 44%. Generally people think that most Chinese voters were undecided and therefore preferred not to vote. It is hard to predict what the scenario will be in PRU 15 if most of the Chinese come out to vote. In the past, high voter turnout, particularly in Chinese majority constituencies, would favour the opposition parties. Should that happen, it may not be as sweet for GPS as it is now.

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DAH IKHWAN

The Sarawak 12th State Election was supposed to be held in August/September this year, but it was deferred owing to the COVID-19 Emergency declaration over Sarawak during that period. However, since the pandemic situation had improved, the Emergency was lifted to enable holding of the Election -casting and counting of votes will be done tomorrow.

In doing this forecast, I made use of publicly available data on each constituency as well as its past voting pattern. The current voting pattern is arrived at after looking at the general sentiments of each major racial group, namely Dayak, Chinese and Malay/Muslim voters.

Barisan Nasional obtained 72 seats, DAP 7 and PKR 3 in the 82 seat DUN during the last election. A post voting data analysis revealed that that Barisan Nasional obtained 89% of the Malay votes, 66.2% of the Dayak, and 34.2% of the Chinese votes. The Government party was ridng over the popularity of the then Chief Minister, Tan Sri Adenan Satem.

In the currrent Election GPS ( previously the BN Sarawak) is also riding on the current Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari’s populaity. He has successfully imposed Petroleum Sales Tax and this added subtantial revenue for the State coffers. The passing of the Constitutional Bill MA 63 a few days ago added to his feather, and all these confirm beyond question his position as the most effective Borneo leader ever, in undertaking delicate negotiations with the Federal Government. He lives up to the expectation of Sarawakian with the GPS Slogan ‘SARAWAK FIRST’

In view of the above substantial achievements, it is fair to expect GPS to do very well in this Election, added further by the current disarray in the opposition camp. However, I prefer to be more conservative in my forecast with an estimate of support of 85% from Malay voters, 64% from Dayak and 35% from the Chinese. Based on the above assumption, with slight adjustments for specific situations in a few hot constituencies, my forecast is given below

This Election sees the emergence of a new contender Parti Sarawak Bersatu founded by Datuk Wong Soon Koh, a former Finance Minister in the Sarawak Government. The impact of this new party is being watched closely by Sarawakians as it is well funded and initially managed to get four incumbents in its fold. The euphoria within the camp has subsided somewhat when a candidate from a nearby constituency, a close ally, decided to withdraw in support of GPS. For full article on this matter, please click here.

Good day everybody, let’s wait for the results tomorrow. In the meantime stay safe, maintain physical distancing, but don’t forget to vote.

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DAH IKHWAN

The expectations of many analysts and the politicians themselves point to another land slide victory for the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), formerly the Barisan Nasional Sarawak Chapter. Landslide it may be, but the question is whether GPS can repeat its performance at the 2016 Sarawak State Election, with slight improvements or probably with some reversals in the outcome.

This State Election is not actually the duplicate of the 2016 election scenario. This time around many new issues come into play, hence it is hard to gauge the impact of these factors on each political coalition at this stage. Firstly, the theme play of Sarawak vs Malayan parties, might be favourable to GPS, but the sudden emergence of the well-funded Parti Sarawak Barsatu (PSB) led by Datuk Wong Soon Koh, the former Sarawak Finance Minister, adds to new uncertainties. After all PSB ran away with a few incumbents from GPS and PKR, thus having incumbency advantage in a few seats.

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Please see Sarawak State Election (2021)Forecast ,click here

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As for PKR, this election is likely to be a very difficult one to face. The party has imploded in the state with the defection of Baru Bian its state chief and the recent departure of his successor Larry Sng. PKR is really headless here. Even in the Peninsular, the party is beset with an uncertain future after the loss of the small, though crucial, Malay support it used to have before. As a matter of record, PKR or Pakatan Harapan only managed to get 7% Malay support at the recent Malacca State Election.

Back to the Sarawak State Election, In N.1 Opar, for instance, the GPS candidate is facing an uphill task. There he is contesting in a six cornered fight against Ranum ak. Mina, the incumbent who had jumped earlier to PSB. In addition there is a PKR candidate and three other candidates from mosquito parties to contend with in this area with 80% Bidayuh voters.

At N.11 Batu Lintang in Kuching city, PKR has to face its former incumbent See Chee How who had jumped ship to PSB. A stiff fight is expected involving PKR, PSB and GPS here, and it is possible any of the three contenders could end up the winner. N.11 has a total of over 28,000 voters of whom 86% are Chinese.

Deep in the interior at N.39 Krian, BERSATU already had a seat when Ali Biju the PKR incumbent defected earlier. Ali Biju is a two term incumbent and and therefore has gathered a large number of personal followers. Fortunately for GPS, Ali Biju has withdrawn from the race to maintain the political goodwill between BERSATU and GPS. There should be a good chance for GPS to capture this seat.

GPS has actually lost a few incumbents to PSB, when Wong Soon Koh founded his new party, which is a splinter of GPS partner SUPP. His group had earlier failed in its quest to be part of GPS caolition.

PSB has financial support of certain Timber groups in Sibu and therefore, argueably implicit support of the Sibu Chinese community too. It was not surprising to Sarawakians when he managed to get Tiong Thai King of N.52 Dudong into his fold. However, it was more surprising when YB Tiong suddenly announced his departure from PSB and urged his supporters to vote for GPS instead. Hence, given the anti parti Malaya sentiment today, GPS should have a good chance to win here. Dudong is a mixed seat with 54.2% Chinese voters, 36.8% Iban and 7.7% Malay/Melanau.

So far, we haven’t received any turn around announcement involving another PSB incumbent candidate Jonathan Rayong at N.33 Engklili. Rayong won the seat in the 2016 State Election on BN ticket and is apparently a popular candidate who could win again in this seat.

Finally, the PSB founder, Wong Soon Koh himself who will defend his seat N. 53 Bawang Assan. He will face a five cornered fight including from DAP and GPS in a seat with 55% Chinese, 38.8% Iban and 5.3% Malay/Melanau voters. PSB may pull thorough here.

As for smaller Peninsular Malaysia’s and new Sarawak parties, it is not expected for them to make any impact, except for PAS which has managed to establish quite a stable following at N.29 Beting Maro in the last two state elections , but nevertheless failed to win so far.

Other than the above seats to watch, there may be a few more less obvious seats that can go either way, but these will not affect the overall results.

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DAH IKHWAN