This is an abridged Engilish version of the original article in Malay language written earlier today in this blog.
This prediction model is based on multiple regression analysis of data in all of the 222 parliamentary constituencies in previous elections. Several factors have been chosen and the data are tested as independent variables.
These factors are found to be highly significant, namely number of Malay, Chinese and Indian voters as well as those of the natives of Sabah and Sarawak. Other factors include the competing partys’ traditional influence in the constituency and the number of times the incumbent stood in previous elections. All the above factors are found to be highly significant and have substantial impact on the outcome of the election.
I have done 12 by-elections and the Sarawak State Election forecast from 2009 to 2011. All my past by-election forecasts turned out to be accurate, except one.
My forecast for the outcome of the Sarawak State election was very accurate up to the number of seats that the opposition obtained. You may access all these past forecasts in this in this blog.
In this prediction, for Peninsular Malaysia, I estimate that 61% of the Malay voters will vote for Barisan Nasional, 25% of the Chinese and 60% of the Indians . These figures provide input to the model along side with the data on the traditional influence of the party in each constituency. In Sarawak and Sabah a slight variation of the model is used in view of the different racial composition in these states.
The prediction derived from the model is shown in the table below:
| Peninsular | BN Minimum (seats) |
BN Maximum (seats) |
| BN | 114 | 122 |
| DAP | 26 | 25 |
| PKR | 17 | 13 |
| PAS | 8 | 5 |
| Total | 165 | 165 |
| Sabah & Sarawak | ||
| BN | 46 | 49 |
| DAP | 8 | 7 |
| PKR | 2 | 1 |
| PAS | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 57 | 57 |
The above table shows that Barisasn Nasional will, on worst case scenario, win a toal of 159 seat, DAP 35, PKR 19 and PAS 8 seats. In a best case scenario BN will win 170 seats while DAP will take 33, PKR 14 and PAS 5 seats.
In order to have 2/3 seat majority, Barisan Nasional needs to only win 148 seats.END
DAH IKHWAN
Salam.. Saudara dah ikhwan mohon kalau boleh dapat senarai penuh nama parliment yg menang mengikut parti parti yg bertanding… Maaf banyak permontaan
terutamanya kawasan di mana Pas dan Pkr menang…
Salam Tuan, boleh berikan analisis utk Negeri Johor, berapa PAS DAP PKR dan BN.
Penilaian saya BN Johor mungkin hilang 5 kerusi Parlimen dan sehingga 8 kerusi dun. Hampir kesemuanya kepada DAP.
Saudara sudara sekalian,
Sekarang saya sedang travelling dan tidak ada access kpd pangkalan data . Maaf ya.
Safe journey.
Semoga saudara selamat dlm
Pejalanan pegi n balik… Nanti jangan lupa komen laporan merdeka centre
merdeka centre dan umcedel penipu dah ikhwan yang paling betul???
Merdeka cyr umcedel hanya ada 1000 lbh subjek analisis. Majlos professor negara subjwk lbh 10 ribu.sendiri mahu ingat mana lbh kredible lor.
Hi,
As a fellow researcher, I am very interested in your analysis. However, I have few problems regarding your regression analysis, namely what regression test do you apply (OLS or VECM or SVECM or others), quantification of qualitative data as well as sampling method.
May you explain your method (or reference) of quantify various qualitative data such as influence of the competing parties and details of your sampling method.
Thanks