GE 14: Analysis of Results by Parliamentary Seats and Votes by Race

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[ this article is translated from Bahasa Malaysia  version dated 22.5.2018]

I am sorry for  the delay in making this results analysis of the PRU 14 which was held over two weeks ago. Actually, this analysis  has been completed sometime back, but there was a need to defer this publication to a allow for a cooling period due to inaccuracies in the forecast.

To recollect,  below is a comparison between the forecast and the actual data:

GE 14: A COMPARISON OF ACTUAL VS FORECAST PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

This forecast has proved to be inaccurate as I did not expect Tun Mahathis’s influence among the Malay voters is still pervasive in the Semenanjung West Coast. However, my forecast that his influence in the East Coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu was very limited proved to be correct and that PAS would experience severe defeat in seats outside their traditional areas has also proved to be correct.

The signs that the Mahathir Tsunami has reached the West Coast was not reflected in almost all opinion polls of the well known polling agencies. Thus, since this blog made our forecast based on those data, our forecast was also far from accurate.

Even then, there were two articles I wrote  that provided early warnings to the BN debacle. First was the sentiment of young Malay voters which could change according to effectiveness of the campaigns by the contesting political parties. Second, the article "Pakatan Harapan, why Johor? "which indicated that PH had managed to attract some 20% of Johor Malay votes and its implication on other Semenanjung states. But, BN did not realise these facts or unable to counter the campaign by Tun Mahathir.

Analysis of Votes by Race

I have completed this analysis on the Malay voter support by means of multiple regression analysis and came out with an estimate of 46.29% Malay voters supporting BN, the highest being in Negeri Sembilan and Johor at 65% and the lowest being Selangor at 34%. The percentage for Semenanjung had gone down by 17% point for the Malay and Indian voters when compared with ,GE 13. This is the main reason for BN’s loss in this election.

Support by race for each major political party is given below:

In spite of the drastic drop in Malay support for BN, it is not enough for PPBM to penetrate UMNO strongholds. This led to failure of PPBM which managed to win only 12 seats. Our analysis indicated that almost all Malay seats won by PH were won in mixed areas with 20% Chinese votes or above, except for Selangor where PKR influence in Malay seats are more pronounced.

For this reason, it is not unexpected that the Federal Government formed by PH is only made up of 58 Malay MPs compared with 63 other MPs.

To increase the number of Malay MP’s , PH needs cooperation from Malay/Muslim MP’s from other parties. Certainly, they may try to win over seats from other parties such as from UMNO, PAS or other BN parties in the next General Election. On the other hand, BN may try to win back seats lost in this election. Which party will eventually win, it is difficult to predict since UMNO, PAS and PBB have very loyal followers. It will depend on UMNO’s ability to consolidate behind a new leadership. As for PH, it would have an advantage as the party governing the Federal Government.

Whatever it is, we should thank Datuk Seri Najib for withdrawing voluntarily as this has enabled a peaceful transition. Congratulations to Tun Mahathir and we should accept the new reality that the opposition party has taken over the government. Hopefully, Tun will succeed to rehabilitate the economy and people’s trust, but should be ready to hand over the government to Anwar as agreed between them.

With the condition of a peaceful transition period in the PH Government and with UMNO’s ability to rise agian to galvanise the opposition, God’s willing, Malaysia will progress ahead towards a truly effective dual party system to pave the way for Malaysia as peaceful and successful country.

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DAH IKHWAN